strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe

Air mass Trajectory ... backward
da dove proviene la massa di Aria

Svizzera ... Jungfraujoch ... ... Italia ... Roma

se tutto procede come deve ( Multi Models )
la macchia viola ( cioè la Wave 2 )
dovrebbe spostarsi over la scandinavia

quindi possibilità di una apertura ed via libera
per una evtl. discesa fredda da nord verso sud

ma questo verso il 20.11.2015

bisogna ora monitorare la situazione delle onde
cioè Rossby Waves ... zonal Wind ... Ridge .. Trough

già da giugno 2015 in atlantico prime tracce di raffreddamento

Atlantic is entering a cool phase that will change the Worlds Weather

attualmente da settimane nel nord atlantico
si nota una cold blob ( SSTA )

da notare con coincidenza al Gulf Stream SST SSTA AMO NAO ( AO )
ma soprattutto al attuale strong El Niño 2015 - 2016
poi vi sono pure i Jet Stream ( ovvero i PFJ ) e per ultimo i Rossby Waves
vi sono pure molti altri fattori ma questi sono i principali ...

cold Atlantic blob puzzles scientists
giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )

scusate se ve lo scrivo in inglese

giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )

Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region
south of greenland are near to
or below their lowest recorded levels

a giant blob of cold water has appeared in the North Atlantic
over the summer months bucking the global trend
of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around the world

Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region south of greenland
are near to or below their lowest recorded levels
leading some scientists to speculate that it may be
a sign that the vast oceans currents of the North Atlantic
are slowing down due to large volumes of glacial melt water
running into the sea
since the beginning of the year scientists
at the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA )
have recorded much lower sea surface temperatures
than usual in the region south of greenland and iceland
with some area recording the lowest eight month period on record

this contrasts with the noticeably higher than average temperatures
seen in almost every other part of the world
which has coincided with a strong El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean
the warm sea current associated with a disturbance
in normal weather patterns

a spokeswoman for the UK Met Office said
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
are well below average and they have been all summer

one suggestion is that the freshwater run off
from the melting greenland glaciers are disturbing
the ocean engine that drives the North Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation
the giant Conveyor belt of sea currents
that include the Gulf Stream

ve ne ho accennao su easameteo ( giant Conveyor belt )

the engine that drives ocean currents is powered
by the sinking of cold salty water
from the sea surface to the seabed in a part
of the North Atlantic south of iceland
but some scientists fear that it is being
disturbed by a layer of cold freshwater
which tends to remain on the sea surface
because the less dense freshwater
floats on the denser salty water

earlier this year scientists published a study suggesting
that the North Atlantic circulation
the northward flow of warm surface water
and the southward flow of deep cold water
had slowed down by between 15% and 20%
during the 20th Century

the current blob was caused partly by strong winds
over the Atlantic during the Winter 2013 - 2014
taking a lot of heat out of the ocean
but I think there are longer term changes going
on in the Atlantic that would give
a similar temperature pattern
said Leon Hermanson a senior scientist
at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter

the magnitude of the changes on time scales
of decades is larger than the effects
we expect from greenland land ice
melt or other factors slowing down
the Atlantic Conveyor belt

the measurements we have of the Conveyor belt
are only ten years long and not at the ideal latitude
to study the northern North Atlantic
but i think based on my own and other peoples research
that the Conveyor belt is currently decreasing
mainly due to climate variability
and only a little due to climate change

2210Gino57 ha scritto:scusate se ve lo scrivo in inglese

giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )

Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region
south of greenland are near to
or below their lowest recorded levels

a giant blob of cold water has appeared in the North Atlantic
over the summer months bucking the global trend
of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around the world

Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region south of greenland
are near to or below their lowest recorded levels
leading some scientists to speculate that it may be
a sign that the vast oceans currents of the North Atlantic
are slowing down due to large volumes of glacial melt water
running into the sea
since the beginning of the year scientists
at the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA )
have recorded much lower sea surface temperatures
than usual in the region south of greenland and iceland
with some area recording the lowest eight month period on record

this contrasts with the noticeably higher than average temperatures
seen in almost every other part of the world
which has coincided with a strong El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean  
the warm sea current associated with a disturbance
in normal weather patterns

a spokeswoman for the UK Met Office said
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
are well below average and they have been all summer

one suggestion is that the freshwater run off
from the melting greenland glaciers are disturbing
the ocean engine that drives the North Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation
the giant Conveyor belt of sea currents
that include the Gulf Stream

ve ne ho accennao su easameteo ( giant Conveyor belt )

the engine that drives ocean currents is powered
by the sinking of cold salty water
from the sea surface to the seabed in a part
of the North Atlantic south of iceland
but some scientists fear that it is being
disturbed by a layer of cold freshwater
which tends to remain on the sea surface
because the less dense freshwater
floats on the denser salty water

earlier this year scientists published a study suggesting
that the North Atlantic circulation
the northward flow of warm surface water
and the southward flow of deep cold water
had slowed down by between 15% and 20%  
during the 20th Century

the current blob was caused partly by strong winds
over the Atlantic during the Winter 2013 - 2014
taking a lot of heat out of the ocean
but I think there are longer term changes going
on in the Atlantic that would give
a similar temperature pattern
said Leon Hermanson a senior scientist
at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter

the magnitude of the changes on time scales
of decades is larger than the effects
we expect from greenland land ice
melt or other factors slowing down
the Atlantic Conveyor belt

the measurements we have of the Conveyor belt
are only ten years long and not at the ideal latitude
to study the northern North Atlantic
but i think based on my own and other peoples research
that the Conveyor belt is currently decreasing
mainly due to climate variability
and only a little due to climate change

su questo argomento ho pronto un articolo che verrà pubblicato in settimana sul sito

Autumn Forecast 2015

September 2015
... ... ...
===
October 2015
... ... ...
===
November 2015
strangely the final month in a seasonal forecast is usually
the month with most uncertainly and although
at this length confidence is always going to be low
there seems to be general agreement for a relatively unsettled
perhaps stormy month ahead
a peaking El Niño in late autumn is thought to help develop
a strong North Atlantic Oscillation which brings an unsettled
often stormy pattern to the UK
the patterns below from the long range models
are just classic examples

now as has often been the case this year my research
has tended to run against the models
so lets see if this is the case
although there are subtle differences there is agreement
that a more westerly flow is likely during November 2015

Summary
so we have overall agreement for a more westerly driven pattern
likely a positive NAO bringing unsettled perhaps stormy conditions UK
normally during a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation
temperatures are mild
however with the North Atlantic being unusually cold
we may see a colder theme with some early snow possible
for higher routes in the north of the UK
with such a temperature contrast likely in the North Atlantic
the jet stream may be strong for a time
producing a few very deep low pressure systems
bringing strong, gale force or even severe gale force winds
during this period

Precipitation: Average to above average
Temperatures: Average ( Potentially below at times in the north )

so overall autumn looks like starting off generally settled
and this may last through till october
then a transition to a more unsettled flow
will take place and by november
we will potentially entering a stormy period of weather

bene Alessandro
non vedo la ora di leggerlo
( perchè poi mi assento per ben 3 weeks )
penso da fine novembre 2015 in poi

Ale90 ha scritto:su questo argomento ho pronto un articolo
che verrà pubblicato in settimana sul sito

questo Articolo come avrai letto è della MetOffice UK

Europe ... MSLP
09.11.2015 00z - 10.11.2015 12z - 25.11.2015 12z






fu berlin germany dwd ... copyright nomi

a fine novembre 2015 si chiude la stagione uragani in atlantico
vedi Thread su easy meteo
http://easymeteo.italiaforum.net/t957-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2015-is-open

Atlantic Hrcne Basin ... Bahamas
Tropical Storm Kate


===
prima che vadino persi ... alcuni miei grafici elaborati

piccolo Off Topic sui Hurricanes ( School Lexicon )
eccovi alcuni Grafici ( elaborati da me in black & white )
movimento ( rotazione ) di un Uragano ( incluso i Venti secondari )



come sapete le Acque ( Oceani ) per un Uragano
vuol dire Benzina ( Rifornimento )



formazione delle Onde alte ( High Waves => WW3 )
detto pure Roughest Seas
( avvolte possono arrivare fino ad una altezza di ben 15 metri )
Specialmente pericoloso quando un Uragano fa il famoso Landfall



Hurricane Atlantic Basin ... Sections ... Regions

USA ... Atlantic ... Europe

attualmente siamo in una situazione con forte Jet Streak
vedi colore in rosso

mentre voi continuate ad aprire Thread Articoli etc. sulla H mediterranea
che in realtà sarebbe la mega H delle Azzorre e che dominerà per giorni
TS Kate inizia il tragitto verso le UK ... Kate racing NE-ward
attualmente in zona Bermuda ... ben presto TS Kate cambia in Post Tropical

Marine Frcst

@gino è probabile che nelle prossime ore Kate riesca a raggiungere la categoria di uragano...
L' ultimo era stato Joaquin oltre un mese fa

esatto Alessandro



purtroppo per i dettagli dovete deviare su easymeteo
la vi è il Link ( Sezione ) sulla Stagione Uragani 2015
http://easymeteo.italiaforum.net/t957-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2015-is-open
questa per fine novembre 2015 chiude

la prossima è per il giugno 2015 - novembre 2015
edit: => la prossima è per il giugno 2016 - novembre 2016

la cosa bella è ( raramente ) che più uragani ( 3 )
sono riusciti ad arrivare ( raggiungere ) le UK
in questa Hrcne Season 2015

@gino la prossima sarà per il giugno 2016-novembre 2016 non 2015

hai ragione Bruno ... ben visto
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p120-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#765

ma al momento come vi ho accennato
ho ben altro per la testa
lutto in Famiglia ( mio Padre )
la mia Salute ( psicologica ) che peggiora
non so neanche se vado al funerale etc.
prossimamente casa di cura clinica nel vallese
insomma sapete circa la mia storia salute e famiglia

Gino mi spiace moltissimo per tuo padre, ti porgo le mie piu sentite condoglianze.

Sentite condoglianze anche da parte mia, mi spiace davvero tanto Gino

Grazie Ragazzi ma la Vita va avanti

mio Padre da 3 anni era sotto demenza ( dimenticanza )
ma sotto vi è ben altro e che io non voglio discuterne nel forum

riguardo me beh ... lo sapete ... ho subito per ben 30 anni ( 1981 ... )
senza contare dalla mia nascita in poi ...
il motore di tutto è mia Mamma ( dominante e patriarca )
la sua infanzia andata male ... io 1mo genito ... etc.
ma io che colpa ne ho ...
quindi ora sono ben 15 mesi che mi sono distanziato
come detto ... volevo dirvelo la settimana scorsa
ma ho preferito non drvi nulla ... meno male che sono forte
ma purtroppo la salute psichica non si può controllare
ed è proprio questa che in me internamente è scoppiata
ho subito fin troppo ed oggi mia mamma sorelle insistono ancora
cioè si negano tutto ... la sorella minore di 2 mi ha dato del vigliacco
ma si ... ora mio Padre riposa in pace ( avrebbe compiuto 83 anni il 26.11.2015 )
mia Madre 7 anni in meno ... se non vado al Funerale Lui lo sa e mi perdona ...
mia Madre mi ha detto troppe brutte cose perfino negato da Figlio etc.
la mia è una Storia lunga ed intrigata complicata etc. ...
ora soprattutto la mia situazione ha peggiorato e quindi clinica
per circa 3 settimane nel vallese ... ma non ora ... a fine novembre 2015
il luogo ( zona ) è bellissimo ...

se volete potete appena letto eliminarlo il post ...

non so se lo sapete oppure sentito dire

UK ... MetOffice ... Autumn Winter Storm Names Project
08.09.2015
Help the Met Office and Met Éireann name our storms this winter
the Met Office and  Met Eireann have announced a pilot project
to name wind storms that are expected to affect the UK and Ireland

Storm Abigail on course for the UK

per i prossimi giorni dominanza H


si nota bene la cupola senza nubi cioè priva di nubi

questo vuol dire che stiamo in una frontal Zone
Rossby Wave ... Jet Stream ( PFJ )

OT

@gino sentite condoglianze

Condoglianze gino

Condoglianze Gino ti siamo vicini

buon pomeriggio
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p135-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#785




fu berlin dwd germany ... copyright nomi


fu berlin dwd germany ... copyright nomi