Winter 2019: PV - Stratospheric Sudden Warming SSW Europe

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Re: Winter 2019: PV - Stratospheric Sudden Warming SSW Europe

Messaggio Da 2210Gino57 il Lun Gen 14, 2019 7:55 pm

14.01.2019
vi ricordate il modello postato ?

da oggi 14.01.2019 NW Atlantic è in NAO minus


da notare il verde > NAO minus

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Re: Winter 2019: PV - Stratospheric Sudden Warming SSW Europe

Messaggio Da 2210Gino57 il Lun Gen 14, 2019 9:44 pm

14.01.2019
Western Europe
Winter 2018 - 2019
Stratospheric Sudden Warming ( SSW )
Arctic Polar cold Air masses over Europe

latest Update on The Polar Vortex split
much colder Weather will overspread
Western half of Europe soon ...

we are now in mid January 2019
and The effects of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming ( SWW )
and Polar Vortex split are becoming visible as strong blocking
over The Arctic region is resulting in strongly dynamic pattern
in The mid-Latitudes
The current strong Ridge over The North Atlantic
should persist until The weekend when a significant pattern
change will likely occur
The Ridge over The Arctic
will intensify while The Northern Atlantic Ridge
retreats West towards North America
This brings development of Troughs with Cyclones
also towards Western Europe
as a result widespread cooling will take place
for large parts of Europe
and enhance chances for Snowfall events

The pattern overview for The weekend into early next week
indicates weakening of the North Atlantic rRidge
as its axis retreats towards the North American continent
deep Troughs pass over The Western Europe
and continue towards South and SouthWest Europe as well
as a result an intense cold outbreak should develop
for the Western half of Europe including The British Isles and Ireland
Iberian peninsula central Europe and The Mediterranean Sea
( Wooooah ! )

looking at The dynamics in The pattern next week

>>> a Trough over The Western Europe
will intensify into a large and very deep System
and a Cyclone at surface level <<< ( 945 mb )

despite This period being a week ahead
most of mid / long range models
are in a quite good agreement
on The intensification of The Trough
and related dynamics through early-mid next week


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Re: Winter 2019: PV - Stratospheric Sudden Warming SSW Europe

Messaggio Da 2210Gino57 il Mar Gen 15, 2019 11:25 am

15.01.2019
Western Europe
Winter 2018 - 2019
Stratospheric Sudden Warming ( SSW )
Arctic Polar cold Air masses over Europe

Synopsis ( Estofex )
Valid: 15.01.2019 06:00 h UTC to 16.01.2019 06:00 h UTC

once again a Polar Air mass
is traveling South to The Mediterranean
Through The Balkans
as The High-Pressure System in N Atlantic
and The Low-Pressure System over Scandinavia
work synergetically in creating a NorthWesterly Flow over Europe
a strong Ridge has built-up in W Europe
with an axis between Algeria and N Atlantic
while a long-wave Trough in Eastern Europe
brings a very cold Air-mass over The much warmer Mediterranean
a pre-existing Cyclone in S Italy will take advantage
of The PVA over The area to further deepen in the Aegean Sea
bringing all kinds of severe Weather
to The Eastern part of The Mediterranean

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Re: Winter 2019: PV - Stratospheric Sudden Warming SSW Europe

Messaggio Da 2210Gino57 il Gio Gen 17, 2019 5:48 am

17.01.2019
Toc ... Toc ... Toc ...
ma ci siete ? ... Lucaaa ...
ma che fine hai fatto ? ...

ho sbagliato in qualche cosa ?

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Re: Winter 2019: PV - Stratospheric Sudden Warming SSW Europe

Messaggio Da 2210Gino57 il Gio Gen 17, 2019 12:22 pm

5.01.2019
Western Europe
Winter 2018 - 2019
Stratospheric Sudden Warming ( SSW )
Arctic Polar cold Air masses over Europe

Synopsis ( Estofex )
Valid: 17.01.2019 06:00 h UTC to 18.01.2019 06:00 h UTC

a Polar Trough amplifies across Western and central Europe
its ill-defined Southern parts cross The West Mediterranean
downstream a Ridge progresses Eastward over The Balkans
given weak low-level moisture of less Than 5 g/kg
over most of Europe ... chances of ThunderStorms
are low over The Continent

an exception is The North Sea region where The Polar Trough
is associated with neutral or slightly unstable lapse rates
supportive for weak Storms that may move onshore
over The Benelux countries and North-Western Germany

The Mediterranean is influenced by better low-level moisture
but limited lapse rates due to a sinking inversion in The range
of The mid-level Ridge
lapse rates improve with The approaching Trough
but will be only about The moist adiabatic lapse rate
over most placed allowing for just weak CAPE
since vertical Wind shear is weak severe TStorms
are not expected
main severe potential is That of heavy Rain
due to slow moving Storms in association
with skinny CAPE profiles
but potential is too low for a risk Level

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Re: Winter 2019: PV - Stratospheric Sudden Warming SSW Europe

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