strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe

Atlantic ... Europe
Surface charts analysis







L => rotazione in senso antiorario
con appoggio dei PFJ ed il Trough
H => rotazione in senso orario

per la Synopsis vedi post precedenti

2210Gino57 ha scritto:domanda
chi di voi sa cosa è Hovmollers

ripongo la domanda già fatta
chi di voi ha un buon contatto con il CNR ?

se non sbaglio Ale ha un professore che collabora con il CNR

per Luca ( 90 )
Grazie Luca ...

ecco il motivo della mia domanda
non so se conoscete il link
lo trovo molto interessante
ma da maggio 2015 non viene più attualizzato

2210Gino57 ha scritto:per Luca ( 90 )
Grazie Luca ...

ecco il motivo della mia domanda
non so se conoscete il link
lo trovo molto interessante
ma da maggio 2015 non viene più attualizzato
http://www.isac.cnr.it/dinamica/projects/forecast_dpc/month_en.htm

magari lui ne sa sicuramente di più oppure sempre se ricordavo bene potra chiedere lumi al suo professore

Grazie Luca ...
( lumi => ? )

Luca non è bisogno che ogni volta quotate il tutto di nuovo ( cita )
questa cita ... quote si potrebbe anche eliminare
alla fine si appesantisce solo la piattaforma ed il Forum rallenta
in molti Forum non viene più usata ...

scusa Luca se lo posto quì ...
ma se è quello che penso ve ne ho accennato
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t5p30-modelli-live-autunno-2015#455

vedi a pagina 3
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p30-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#175

sarà comunque difficile ...
la Wave2 purquanto insiste ( accennato )
per noi cioè nostre Latitudini è più un SSW
in poche parole ... aria mite atlantica ...
vedi appunto pure gli ultimi miei grafici revised postati
=> surface chart analysis

accennato cosa? al momento sono le code dei GM che vedono possibile un disturbo al VP con isolamento di GPT in sede Groelandese, rimane un qualcosa su cui parlare ma pur sempre con attendibilità bassa, troppa bassa per poterne parlare con certezza.

con un'evoluzione del genere è auspicale un'uscita bassa del Jet dagli States quindi una possibile partenza del flusso Atlantico verso le nostre latitudini, ma ripeto è un'evoluzione da prendere con cautela

Buonasera

Off Topic
scusate la mia domanda un poco curiosa
in molti Forum Meteo nel Profilo vi è un button
dove poter cliccare per lasciare il Forum volontariamente

in questo non lo noto ...

2210Gino57 ha scritto:Buonasera

Off Topic
scusate la mia domanda un poco curiosa
in molti Forum Meteo nel Profilo vi è un button
dove poter cliccare per lasciare il Forum volontariamente

in questo non lo noto ...

OT

penso che dovrebbe il tasto disconnetti del menù in alto quello di cui parli

Off Topic
non quel button Alessandro ... quello lo so
oltre ad molti Forum Meteo sono stato pure Moderatore
cioè mi hanno graduato per la mia Esperienza Meteo ed Forecast
naturalmente solo la mia Sezione apposita ... beh insomma ...
no ... intendo il button per poter lasciar il Forum completamente

una buona Domenica 08.11.2015 con Sole ed Temp di +15°C

bella questa ... io vi annuncio in anticipo le News
e voi poi ne fate gli Articoli in HP
almeno un pizzico di nominarmi
dopotutto il mio Lavoro ha pure un Prezzo
di normale dovrei essere un Moderatore
almeno ora dato che vi è la Stanza di Gino
Ginos Long Range Forecast Threads
evoluzione Meteo e tendenza ad opera del nostro Gino

https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#111
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#11

pagina 4
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p45-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#318

pagina 6
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p75-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#438

powerful Tropical Cyclone Megh to follow in footsteps of Chapala

come vi ho già accennato nei post precedenti

Europe ... mild November 2015

2210Gino57 ha scritto:strong el niño plus a westerly QBO
favours a stronger strat vortex
however it also increases the chances of a SSW

strat vortex => stratosphere vortex

2210Gino57 ha scritto:una buona Domenica 08.11.2015 con Sole ed Temp di +15°C

bella questa ... io vi annuncio in anticipo le News
e voi poi ne fate gli Articoli in HP
almeno un pizzico di nominarmi
dopotutto il mio Lavoro ha pure un Prezzo
di normale dovrei essere un Moderatore
almeno ora dato che vi è la Stanza di Gino
Ginos Long Range Forecast Threads
evoluzione Meteo e tendenza ad opera del nostro Gino

https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#111
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#11

pagina 4
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p45-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#318

pagina 6
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p75-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#438

powerful Tropical Cyclone Megh to follow in footsteps of Chapala

emmm, no direi di no Gino, le news che pubblichiamo in home le facciamo con i dati che ci arrivano dai GM

buon pomeriggio

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 08 Nov 2015 06:00 h UTC to Mon 09 Nov 2015 06:00 h UTC

NE Europe

cyclonically curved Jet Streak within a N-easterly moving Trough
is Frcst to pass british isles and North Sea during the forecast period

most of the southern europe
( where thunderstorms are the most likely during this time of the year )
stays under the extensive Azores Highs Ridge
that inhibits convective activity
a tongue of warm and dry Air from NW Africa
( with 850 hpa Temperature up to 15°C -17°C )
covers iberian peninsula and france and moves eastwardly
during the forecast period providing warm and dry Weather
such a warm air mass causes a large horizontal Thermal gradient $
between cold Air over N Atlantic
and results in a strong Thermal wind ( Jet Stream )
that undulates over british isles and baltic sea
within these systems ( Troughs ) a rapidly moving
cold Fronts are forecast to be capable of producing lightning
and pose a threat for the severe wind gusts and tornadoes

ECMWF ... 10.11.2015

ECMWF Special

che bella cupola di H delle Azzorre

vi interessa ? ... pagina 6
Hovmollers Section
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p75-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#434

buonasera

december 2015 on average is a very zonal month the most zonal of the year

per i prossimi 3 mesi siamo messi male
zonal Wind at 200 mb NDJ ... meridional Wind at 200 mb NDJ
NDJ => November December January

belle ed interessanti queste cross section ...



affinchè non si sposta quella bella macchia viola over greenland
avremo per giorni settimane questa monotonia ... cioè mite ( mT )
vedi attualmente oppure modelli postati



ci credete oppure no la massa di aria mite arriva da oltre atlantico ... USA
ve ne ho accennato ... ma voi preferite aspettare i GM ... Run by Run

Air mass Trajectory ... backward
da dove proviene la massa di Aria

Svizzera ... Jungfraujoch ... ... Italia ... Roma

se tutto procede come deve ( Multi Models )
la macchia viola ( cioè la Wave 2 )
dovrebbe spostarsi over la scandinavia

quindi possibilità di una apertura ed via libera
per una evtl. discesa fredda da nord verso sud

ma questo verso il 20.11.2015

bisogna ora monitorare la situazione delle onde
cioè Rossby Waves ... zonal Wind ... Ridge .. Trough

già da giugno 2015 in atlantico prime tracce di raffreddamento

Atlantic is entering a cool phase that will change the Worlds Weather

attualmente da settimane nel nord atlantico
si nota una cold blob ( SSTA )

da notare con coincidenza al Gulf Stream SST SSTA AMO NAO ( AO )
ma soprattutto al attuale strong El Niño 2015 - 2016
poi vi sono pure i Jet Stream ( ovvero i PFJ ) e per ultimo i Rossby Waves
vi sono pure molti altri fattori ma questi sono i principali ...

cold Atlantic blob puzzles scientists
giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )

scusate se ve lo scrivo in inglese

giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )

Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region
south of greenland are near to
or below their lowest recorded levels

a giant blob of cold water has appeared in the North Atlantic
over the summer months bucking the global trend
of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around the world

Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region south of greenland
are near to or below their lowest recorded levels
leading some scientists to speculate that it may be
a sign that the vast oceans currents of the North Atlantic
are slowing down due to large volumes of glacial melt water
running into the sea
since the beginning of the year scientists
at the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA )
have recorded much lower sea surface temperatures
than usual in the region south of greenland and iceland
with some area recording the lowest eight month period on record

this contrasts with the noticeably higher than average temperatures
seen in almost every other part of the world
which has coincided with a strong El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean
the warm sea current associated with a disturbance
in normal weather patterns

a spokeswoman for the UK Met Office said
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
are well below average and they have been all summer

one suggestion is that the freshwater run off
from the melting greenland glaciers are disturbing
the ocean engine that drives the North Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation
the giant Conveyor belt of sea currents
that include the Gulf Stream

ve ne ho accennao su easameteo ( giant Conveyor belt )

the engine that drives ocean currents is powered
by the sinking of cold salty water
from the sea surface to the seabed in a part
of the North Atlantic south of iceland
but some scientists fear that it is being
disturbed by a layer of cold freshwater
which tends to remain on the sea surface
because the less dense freshwater
floats on the denser salty water

earlier this year scientists published a study suggesting
that the North Atlantic circulation
the northward flow of warm surface water
and the southward flow of deep cold water
had slowed down by between 15% and 20%
during the 20th Century

the current blob was caused partly by strong winds
over the Atlantic during the Winter 2013 - 2014
taking a lot of heat out of the ocean
but I think there are longer term changes going
on in the Atlantic that would give
a similar temperature pattern
said Leon Hermanson a senior scientist
at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter

the magnitude of the changes on time scales
of decades is larger than the effects
we expect from greenland land ice
melt or other factors slowing down
the Atlantic Conveyor belt

the measurements we have of the Conveyor belt
are only ten years long and not at the ideal latitude
to study the northern North Atlantic
but i think based on my own and other peoples research
that the Conveyor belt is currently decreasing
mainly due to climate variability
and only a little due to climate change

2210Gino57 ha scritto:scusate se ve lo scrivo in inglese

giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )

Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region
south of greenland are near to
or below their lowest recorded levels

a giant blob of cold water has appeared in the North Atlantic
over the summer months bucking the global trend
of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around the world

Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region south of greenland
are near to or below their lowest recorded levels
leading some scientists to speculate that it may be
a sign that the vast oceans currents of the North Atlantic
are slowing down due to large volumes of glacial melt water
running into the sea
since the beginning of the year scientists
at the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA )
have recorded much lower sea surface temperatures
than usual in the region south of greenland and iceland
with some area recording the lowest eight month period on record

this contrasts with the noticeably higher than average temperatures
seen in almost every other part of the world
which has coincided with a strong El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean  
the warm sea current associated with a disturbance
in normal weather patterns

a spokeswoman for the UK Met Office said
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
are well below average and they have been all summer

one suggestion is that the freshwater run off
from the melting greenland glaciers are disturbing
the ocean engine that drives the North Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation
the giant Conveyor belt of sea currents
that include the Gulf Stream

ve ne ho accennao su easameteo ( giant Conveyor belt )

the engine that drives ocean currents is powered
by the sinking of cold salty water
from the sea surface to the seabed in a part
of the North Atlantic south of iceland
but some scientists fear that it is being
disturbed by a layer of cold freshwater
which tends to remain on the sea surface
because the less dense freshwater
floats on the denser salty water

earlier this year scientists published a study suggesting
that the North Atlantic circulation
the northward flow of warm surface water
and the southward flow of deep cold water
had slowed down by between 15% and 20%  
during the 20th Century

the current blob was caused partly by strong winds
over the Atlantic during the Winter 2013 - 2014
taking a lot of heat out of the ocean
but I think there are longer term changes going
on in the Atlantic that would give
a similar temperature pattern
said Leon Hermanson a senior scientist
at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter

the magnitude of the changes on time scales
of decades is larger than the effects
we expect from greenland land ice
melt or other factors slowing down
the Atlantic Conveyor belt

the measurements we have of the Conveyor belt
are only ten years long and not at the ideal latitude
to study the northern North Atlantic
but i think based on my own and other peoples research
that the Conveyor belt is currently decreasing
mainly due to climate variability
and only a little due to climate change

su questo argomento ho pronto un articolo che verrà pubblicato in settimana sul sito