December 2015: West Wind Weather central Europe Mediterranean

buonasera
summary

central Europe ... Bay of Biscay
Bay of Biscay is located off the North coast of Spain
and the West coast of France in the Atlantic Ocean
South of the Celtic Sea

causa Trough ed il Fronte freddo ( occluded Front ) di Low Zwi
arrivato appunto nella Bay of Biscay ... accensione
occluded Front Low Zwi ... 965 mb

infatti nubi corpose in corrispondenza

buonasera
non finisco mai di ripeterlo
quanto mi piacciono queste belle
Formazioni nel North Sea
tra UK ed Scandinavia ( Norvegia )
Shapiro Keyser Cyclone model
detto pure Norvegian Cyclone model
spesso sono occlused Fronts
Aria fredda in Superfice ... Aria calda in quota
e se non mi sbaglio viene nominata inversione

Edit

Spettacolari le Isobari
ma pure il PFJ è uno Spettacolo
nel NE USA attualmente strong Jet Streak

Polar Vortex Trough ... Bay of Biscay
-30°C

04.01.2016 12z ... central Europe
Alpine regions ... Modelli prevedono Neve
>>> 1000 m - 1200 m <<<

vedi a pagina 1 ... post di inizio ( primo post )
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t28-mi-presento-la-meteo-come-hobby#3922

L R F per inizio Gennaio 2016
ve lo ricordate il Grafico da me elaborato ?
postato in uno dei post precedenti

Casa di cura Montana ... Vallese ... CH
http://lhm.roundshot.com
http://www.lhm.ch/fur-patienten/wohnen-essen

dove abito io è simile ... Panorama
vista Alpi ... ma quì è uno Spettacolo !

per Luca
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t28-mi-presento-la-meteo-come-hobby#3927
è tutto ancora da vedere ... una vera lotta

ecco invece come la vede ECMWF ... UK ... Reading
vede un inizio Gennaio 2016 mite

EFI ECMWF
EFI => Extreme Forecast Index


colore rosso => caldo ... colore blu => freddo

stasera tardi esce come ogni Lunedì il Blog riguardo il AO Index
sono curioso cosa dice ...

buon pomeriggio
scusate il Link
spro me lo permettete

soggiorno nel Valllese in Svizzera
Clinica Casa di cura Montana
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t28-mi-presento-la-meteo-come-hobby#3915
da pagina 1 in poi ...
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chi di voi conosce il Sito di FU Berlin DWD D ?
riguardo la Stratosphere ( ECMWF )

no comment !



Greenland ... Groenlandia
Wave2 molto robusta ... very strong Wave2

summary ... riassumize

Sommario ... Summary
riassumize

Natale 2015 ... mite
Capodanno 2016 ... freddo

early signals for Pattern change in January 2016
Stratospheric Polar Vortex expected to weaken in January 2016

per Capodanno intendo Anno nuovo
ma il cambio è intesodal dal 03.01.2016 in poi
la mega Wave2 in arrivo ...

Northern Hemisphere

day 3


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day 5


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day 8


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day 11


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NCEP Frst Europe
12z cycle GFS
Temp at 500 mb




zonal Flow ... Frontal Flow ... Clouds

buonasera

di nuovo gli UK presi di mira
Low Arend ... Low Bjarni 975 mb

di nuovo Cumbria UK
red Watch has been issued for Cumbria

yellow Weather Watch issued: NW England ( Strong Winds ... Heavy Rain )
red Weather Watch issued: Cumbria ( Heavy Rain ... Flooding )

Mediterraneo ... Italia
High Brigitte

Summary ... Sommario

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 21 Dec 2015 06:00 h UTC to Tue 22 Dec 2015 06:00 h UTC

a Westerly mid level Flow carries a Trough
from Western to central Europe
the Trough is associated with a mid level cold Front
moving from the Netherlands to the Baltic states
behind it a Low associated with a fast shortwave Trough
moves over Scotland Denmark and southern Baltic Sea

after its occluded Front convection could appear
with ELs cold enough for Thunderstorms but CAPE is weak
this visits Scotland around 15z NW Denmark around 00z
and Baltic Sea after 03z according to GFS
Wind gusts of 30 m/s are possible in these areas

incredibile nel NE USA ... NE Canada ... Greenland
vedi 500 mb Temp gpdm

incredibile nel NE USA ... NE Canada ... Greenland
vedi 500 mb Temp gpdm ... visibile la 520 gpdm

https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t41p465-december-2015-west-wind-weather-central-europe-mediterranean#3965

NE USA ... NE Canada ... Greenland

confronto


Total Cloud Water

anche Gennaio 2016 sembra rimanere sul mite
dominanza della H
Ridge => High Pressure => Aria mite in risalita verso Nord

AO is currently positive and is predicted to trend negative
but still remain near neutral

negative AO trend is reflective of the Model forecast
of initial Low Pressure Geopotential Heights
over the North Atlantic side of the Arctic
transitioningto more High Pressure Geopotential Heights

Models are predicting that the dominant
Geopotential Height rise will be near Scandinavia
and the Barents Kara Seas
with downstream Troughing over East Asia
this has significant implications
for the strength of the polar vortex in January 2016

with High Pressure strengthening
in the Barents Kara Seas
Temperatures should turn cold
first across Siberia and Central Asia
and then eventually across East Asia  
however for now blocking across NW Asia
will prevent the Westward Flow
of cold air from Siberia into Europe

Atmosphere is currently experiencing a pulse of Energy
transfer from the Troposphere to the Stratosphere
that will last the remainder of the week  
Models are predicting a second pulse
during the first week of January 2016
and we continue to anticipate even
further Energy transfer  
will begin to perturb or disturb the Polar Vortex
starting this week
which will likely peak sometime in January 2016

High Snow cover and Low Sea Ice
this past fall favored a weakening
of the Polar Vortex
preferentially in January 2016
latest Weather Model forecasts increase
our confidence in a weakening
or perturbed Polar Vortex in January 2016
( GFS more so than the ECMWF
and this needs to be closely monitored )
following the Polar Vortex weakening
the negative phase of the AO
cold temperatures and potentially
an increase in Snowstorms
is favored across the Northern Hemisphere
mid latitudes including the Eastern United States
Europe and East Asia

MJO

Globe1 happened => check ... Globe2 predicted => check ... Globe3 => ?