start May 2016: first ten days milder South Flow SAL TStorms

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dove abito io

Svizzera centrale
continua a piovere

14.05.2016 ... 07:55:15 h MESZ
Europe

Esperti Meteorologi US ci avvertono di una Estate 2016 Temporalesca

Wiesbaden ( D ) 13.05.2016
heavy TStorms are expected this Summer 2016
to see the Meteorologists at least from the United States
you have an overview created what might happen in the summer
what's in the thing off ? ... Warning TStorm Summer 2016

in terms of long term Weather trend
of State US Weather Service NOAA is well known above all
however other weather services from North America
continue to make appropriate Trend assessments
what could people expect in terms of Weather
in the coming months

yesterday a private and long established Weather service
has ( founded in 1962 ) presented from the USA
the so called highlights of the European Summer 2016
therefore called T-Storms were expected
T-Storms represents Thunder Storms
and means nothing but Thunderstorms
in a strip from France to Germany to Poland
is accordingly would form boundary Weather conditions
this summer again
warm Air from the South would hit cold Air from the North
as a result frequent Thunderstorms activities over Germany

throughout the Mediterranean it is hand warm
are in the Eastern Mediterranean even hot and dry
and therefore a perfect destination for Sun seeking Vacationers
but watch out ... the US colleagues see also drought and forest fires
for these regions
North of Europe is more likely to get a wet Summer
and towards Russia is also announced heat
but rather late in the Summer

If true this trend would bring a Storm Summer 2016

our statement on this

these are perhaps nice Meteorological gimmicks
but not more because
a Weather Forecast for weeks and months is not possible
the statement that there will be Thunderstorms over Germany
this coming Summer is really nothing spectacular

because
German as well as central European Summer are usually
always a fairly convoluted affair precisely
because we have frequent changes between warm and cold Air
therefore there is every Summer Thunderstorms repeatedly
and also quite violent part ... so no need to panic

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 14 May 2016 06:00 h UTC to Sun 15 May 2016 06:00 h UTC

most of the W S and E Europe is covered with polar warm Air
while Tropical mass is pushed aside over Africa and E Mediterranean

on their border a sub Tropical Jet ( STJ )
stretches from Tunisia trough Greece Black Sea up to S Russia
cold Polar Jet ( PFJ ) is fragmented over far N Europe
due to high extending over British Isles and long wave
with axis stretching from Svalbard up to central Europe
increased Jet Flow runs from Iceland up to Benelux
most of the SW Europe is covered with 025 hpa Ridge
mostly inhibiting DMC
a broad low on the right flank of the long wave provides advection
of a warm and moist Airmass from Black Sea area up
to Baltic countries and E Europe
a remaining cold mid levels due to a vanishing Cut off over SE Europe
( and partly overlapping with a sub Tropical Jet ... STJ )
provides a steep Temperature lapse rates

14.05.2016 ... 10:15:15 h MESZ
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t97p175-start-may-2016-first-ten-days-milder-south-flow-sal-tstorms#10915
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t97p175-start-may-2016-first-ten-days-milder-south-flow-sal-tstorms#10916
ed in altri post precedenti

insomma ... fino adesso tutto procede come previsto

per oggi Sabato 14.05.2016
Alpine regions and NW Italy
occhio ( Attenzione ! ) dal pomeriggio in poi
a partire dalle 13:00 h MESZ in poi



il Fronte freddo di Low Zooey I II è in atto ( Polar Trough )
incluso vi sono pure Temporali ( leggi la synopsis di Estofex )
ma già io ne ho accennato

Svizzera

Pioggia ... ultime 24 h
accumulo



continu a piovere ( CH centrale )

Vento da Nord

EumetSat

vi ricordate ?
qualche post precedente
grafico con i cerchi rossi
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t97p200-start-may-2016-first-ten-days-milder-south-flow-sal-tstorms#10921


14.05.2016
occhio ai Venti in quota

dal post di stamane 14.05.2016 10:20 h MESZ
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t97p200-start-may-2016-first-ten-days-milder-south-flow-sal-tstorms#10921

attualmente 14.05.2016 14:00 h MESZ
puntuale ...

accensione ... Fulminazioni
Alpine regions ... NW Italy

Svizzera

Piove senza Pausa da ben 24 h
soprattutto nella CH centrale

ma pure nel NW Italy riaccende
Lombardia ... zona Bergamo dintorni

forte accensione della Fulminazione
===
nel Forum Silenzio assoluto
chiuso per Vacanze ...
===
Edit ( 14.05.2016 ... 16:05:30 h MESZ )

NW Italy ... Piemonte
zona Torino dintorni
14.05.2016 ... 14:00:00 h UTC

14.05.2016 ... 17:15:30 h MESZ

NW Italy ... Piemonte
zona Torino dintorni
mega Supercell ( V Shape )

14.05.2016 ... 18:00:15 h MESZ

mega accensione nel NW Italy
Supercell nel Gulf of Lyon ed Gulf of Genoa
fin su in zona Torino ed dintorni

14.05.2016
mega accensione nel NW Italy
Supercell nel Gulf of Lyon ed Gulf of Genoa
fin su in zona Torino ed dintorni

https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t97p200-start-may-2016-first-ten-days-milder-south-flow-sal-tstorms#10928
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t97p200-start-may-2016-first-ten-days-milder-south-flow-sal-tstorms#10929
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t97p200-start-may-2016-first-ten-days-milder-south-flow-sal-tstorms#10931
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t97p200-start-may-2016-first-ten-days-milder-south-flow-sal-tstorms#10932

Remember

Jet Stream
tra USA ( NE E SE ) ... Atlantic ... Europe ( NW W SW )
il Jet Stream è praticamente frantumato ( split )

18.05.2016

come accennato ( anticipato ) ... prepariamoci
ad accogliere una Estate 2016 piena di Surprises
non inteso il caldo caldo estivo ma un su ed giù
insomma variabile tra caldo ed Temporali

confermato comunque ( accennato ) per questa Estate La Niña

75% chance La Niña develops
vedi modello SST SSTA anomaly
La Niña coming ? deep pool of cool water is making its way
across Tropical Pacific



North Atlantic Hurricanes have followed a transition from
El Niño to La Niña have been very active early Summer

United States has been impacted by over twice
as many Hurricanes in La Niña compared with El Niño
===
check out the cold tongue developing in the Eastern Pacific
Oceanic Easterly waves in the are starting to appear

Atlantic SST have warmed +4°C o/the 2 past months
SSTA are now positive in most of the main development Region
===
Europe
occhio per il 19.05.2016
Alpine regions and NW Italy



( ma nessuno ne discute ? ne parla ? )
vi sono stati nel NW Italy Fenomeni estremi
ma ci siete ? ...


end may 2016 ( +25°C ? oppure over ? )

vedi Estofex ( synopsis )

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 16 May 2016 06:00 h UTC to Thu 17 May 2016 06:00 h UTC

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 17 May 2016 06:00 h UTC to Thu 18 May 2016 06:00 h UTC

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 18 May 2016 06:00 h UTC to Thu 19 May 2016 06:00 h UTC

Western Empire ... central Europe

arriva Low Arlette


===
ed ecco come potrebbe evolversi questa Estate 2016 in Europa
DWD Germany


===
diamo di nuovo uno sguardo in USA
forte Maltempo nel Texas

18.05.2016

India ... la 1ma Bassa Pressione Tropicale in arrivo
localmente fino a 300 L per m2 ... Vento quasi nulla
max 50 km/h ( Forza 7 )

18.05.2016

Western Empire ... central Europe
Alpine regions ... NW Italy

prossimi giorni ( fine Maggio 2016 ... end May 2016 )
Low Arlette porta alle nostre Lat. +25°C ed Temporali

Europe
occhio per il 19.05.2016
Alpine regions and NW Italy




end may 2016 ( +25°C ? oppure over ? )
===
Western Empire ... central Europe

arriva Low Arlette
Fronte occluso




===
ed ecco come potrebbe evolversi questa Estate 2016 in Europa
DWD Germany

18.05.2016

USA ... New England ... Maine
Tempesta di Neve
May Snow Storm ( ~20 cm )

La Niña is on the way ( developing )
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t97p200-start-may-2016-first-ten-days-milder-south-flow-sal-tstorms#10977


loop



La Niña expected for Winter 2016 - 2017

Western Empire ... central Europe

arriva Low Arlette
Fronte occluso

NW Italy ... Lombardia ... Cantù CO
per il 19.05.2016 12z




da sinistra verso destra
===
Modello svizzero NEMS4 by Centro Meteo CH ( Copyright )
NW Italy ... Lombardia ... Cantù CO



sulla sinistra dove è la crocetta si trova Cantù ( Coordinate )
sulla destra sarebbe la cross section ( taglio verticale )
Cloud cover => copertura Nubi ( Cb )... edi la linea nera

Western Empire ... central Europe

arriva Low Arlette
Fronte occluso



la freccia rossa indica Aria calda umida mT ( fino ad fine Maggio 2016 )
vedi post precedenti ... Temp in rialzo con ben +25°C and over

che bel modello quello sopra, si vedono bene i cumulonembi temporaleschi che si sviluppano per chilometri in verticale

Western Empire ... central Europe

arriva Low Arlette
Fronte occluso

il Fronte raggiunge la costa europea
dallo Stretto di Gibilterra fin su in CH
cioè ai confini tra F D ed CH

in lontananza sento tuonare
sembra di essersi formata
una mini Supercell verso Lucerna ...

forte Fulminazione non lontano da Ginevra
sembra verso Lyon ( Lyon - Dole )