Atlantic Hrcne Basin: Hrcne Season 2016

Atlantic Tropical
Caribbean sub region
Caribbean Sea





la nuova Invest 98L ( 98AL ) sale a 20%
colore in giallo

da notare nel Nord Atlantico
Shapiro Keyser Cyclone 965 mb
vedi FU B DWD D

West Africa
Monsoon Trof
ITCZ



Super attività ... bolle ... strabolle

02.10.2016 ... 04:15:45 h CEST

Atlantic Tropical
Caribbean sub region
Caribbean Sea

Matthew a very dangerous Hurricane
will impact Jamaica Haiti and Cuba
Monday 03.10.2016 and Tuesday 04.10.2016

02.10.2016 ... 14:15:45 h CEST

Atlantic Tropical
Caribbean sub region
Caribbean Sea

Matthew è uno dei tanti che in meno di 36 h
è riuscito ad intensificarsi da un TS ad Cat.5

Cuba ed Hiti in Allerta
Hrcne Matthew Cat.4



i Modelli per Uragano continuano ad vedere
in Matthew una Cat.5



Surface charts

torniamo per un attimo alle nostre Latitudini
avete visto i Modelli ? ... quota 500 mb


frecce in celeste => Trough ... frecce in rosso => Ridge
approposito ... interessante la synopsis su estofex

limite 0°C ( Neve )
tira aria da Neve

( se ben ricordo riguardo ad inizio di Ottobre 2016
ve ne ho anticipato in uno dei post precedenti )
incluso Modelli ed Grafici revised by

Off Topic

come è li da voi Ragazzi il Clima ?
quì dove abito io ( CH ... Svizzera )
è veramente Triste guardando fuori

come già accennato ( anticipato )
Scandinavian High in vista

lovely Scandi High this week
cold Air on the Eastern flank will resulting
in decent Snow accumulations
for East european Mountains by Friday 07.10.2016

Scandinavian High ( 1045 mb )

2210Gino57 ha scritto:Off Topic

come è li da voi Ragazzi il Clima ?
quì dove abito io ( CH ... Svizzera )
è veramente Triste guardando fuori

qui stamattina era coperto, invece nel pomeriggio è uscito il sole e faceva anche piuttosto caldo

Atlantico in generale
North Atlantic busy
Tropical and extra Tropical Hurricane force Systems

ve ne ho accennato
Nord Atlantico
arrivo di Lows a catena
Shapiro Keyser Cyclones
( extra Tropical Hurricane force Systems )

vedi pure il modello della NOAA Surface charts
quello con le frecce dove indica la direzione
oppure FU B DWD D

sono curioso gli effetti nei prossimi giorni
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t94p650-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2016#15224
nel Nord Atlantico è già pronto il prossimo Low 965 mb
dovrebbe avere pure effetto nel Mediterraneo
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t94p650-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2016#15225



al momento voi avete il Low Yanina
( con aggiunta supplementare il Genoa Low )
mentre da voi soffia il STJ da noi abbiamo il PFJ
ma non solo ... abbiamo pure il Trough ( divergence )
tra non molto in convergence
e poi arriva il nuovo Low 965 mb

con il nuovo Low in arrivo
vedi post precedente
extra Tropical Cyclone ( Hrcne ) force
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t94p650-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2016#15225
a partire dal 03.10.2016 in poi
crollo delle Temp a +3°C ( sera notte )

da tenere conto pure la Scandinavian High
===
come vi avevo accennato in un post precedente ( estofex )
una lotta tra Troughs Ridges Airmass zonal meridional Flows etc.
a Trough is active over most parts of central and North Europe
its Southernmost part detaches during the forecast period
and forms an upper level low centered over Northern Germany and Denmark
cold upper level Airmasses lead to an unstable environment

Western and NW Europe are mainly under the influence
of a well amplified Ridge on the forward flank
of a new long wave Trough over the Eastern North Atlantic
stable and warm Airmasses are increasingly advected
with a Southerly component

apart from the Aegean Sea most regions of the Mediterranean
still have to struggle with an unstable environment
the Trough on the Southern flank of the addressed upper level low
over Northern Germany influences Southern Europa
its main axis travels from Sardinia at the beginning
of the forecast period to the Eastern Balkan Peninsula
at its end. However, it is not easy to anticipate a strict axis
since the general Flow is rather zonal showing
several short wave features

in the second half of the forecast time SW Europa
and the Western Mediterranean are getting
under the influence of a shallow Ridge
and thus under stable conditions

03.10.2016 00z
955 mb


da notare il suo Fronte prolungato
arriva spesso fin giù in USA ( East coast )

https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t94p650-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2016#15228

con il nuovo Low ( Shapiro Keyser Cyclone ) in arrivo
per il weekend tira aria da Inverno

GFS 12z shows how you can get cold spells
in the Winter with a +NAO

dal Shapiro Keyser Cyclone si stacca un Cut off

ecco la situazione generale in Europa
03.10.2016 - 04.10.2016



da notare la Scandinavian High Peter 1045 mb

Atlantic Tropical
Caribbean sub regions
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t94p650-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2016#15225

come accennato Jamaica Cuba ed Haiti in Allerta

Major Hurricane Matthew will pose severe risks to lives and property
across Jamaica Eastern Cuba and Haiti by unleashing flooding rain
destructive winds and an inundating Storm
surge through Tuesday 04.10.2016

after tracking Westward across the Caribbean Sea this past week
Matthew currently a Category 4 ( Major ) Hurricane
made a turn to the North NW on Saturday night 08.10.2016

Matthew will continue to travel Northward
and make an approach to Haiti and Eastern Cuba
while passing very close to Jamaica as well early this week

after moving away from the Caribbean
Matthew threatens to approach
the US East coast during
the middle and latter half of this week
Matthew to remain a Major Hurricane into midweek
Matthew is the second Major Hurricane of the Season 2016
following Gaston from August 2016
on Friday night 30.09.2016 Matthew briefly became
the first Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin
since Hurricane Felix in 2007



Matthew mantiene la Cat. Major fin dopo la Florida ( US East coast )
dopo ... una volta arrivato nel NE US coast non solo scende a Cat.2
ma viene risucchiato dai Lows ovvero dai extra Tropical Cyclones
detti pure Shapiro Keyser Cyclones ed grazie al PFJ arriva da noi UK
ve ne ho anticipato ( per il 13.10.2016 ~ )

interessante la situazione generale
a parire dal 05.10.2016 in poi
forse già dal 04.10.2016

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 03 Oct 2016 06:00 h UTC to Tue 04 Oct 2016 06:00 h UTC

a mid level low causes unstable and rainy conditions
over much of central Europe
steep lapse rates are found on the West side
of a cold Front between Southern Sweden and Slovenia
Convective Cloud Tops will be cold
enough for electrification but CAPE is just marginal

an occlusion will wrap around the Low over Denmark
and Netherlands and finally also the cold Front
will move Westward and become effectively a warm Front
as the core of the Low shifts quickly toward Slovakia
starting a strong Easterly advection of warm moist Air
over Poland and into Germany
the Northern Adriatic region is prone to dynamic lifting
from a shortwave PV feature at the South side of the main Low
and a strong Jet overlaps a region with CAPE

Scandinavian High Peter ... 1045 mb
anche se High Pressure ( Alta Pressione )
sarà più una HP fredda ( vedi 500 mb ed 850 mb le Temp )
vedi pure i modelli che vi ho anticipato

Atlantic Tropical
Caribbean sub regions

Major Hrcne Matthew
possible Landfall


===
03.10.2016 ... 20:45:15 h CEST


immagine sopra a sinistra ... posizione attuale
immagine sopra al centro ... landfall 1
immagine sopra a destra ... landfall 2
===
cross section
wind



per il 06.10.2016 00z Matthew invade le Bahamas

Major Hrcne Matthew visto con Google Earth
da notare il suo occhio ( 940 mb )

ho paura che matthew faccia un po' di danni, già nelle prossime ore colpirà cuba e la repubblica domenica, poi continuerà verso nord e verso la florida e l' east coast

per Alessandro
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t94p650-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2016#15254
concordo ... quoto

Tropical Atlantic
Caribbean sub regions
Major Hrcne Matthew

Buoy 42058



Wave High sui 35 feet
Onda alta sui 10 m
SST sui 29°C

Tropical Atlantic
Caribbean sub regions
Major Hrcne Matthew

extreme Hurricane Matthew
there is not much to say anymore
Matthew is still a Category 4 Storm
and we know where it is going
it is even moving a bit more to the East
good for Jamaica bad for Haiti

the Eye of Matthew is actually expected
to move over ( or very near ) Haiti tonight
after it crosses Cuba

Matthew will move still as a Category 4 Storm
into the Bahamas
===
per Alessandro
volevi scrivere republica domenicana

repubblica domenica

Europe

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 04 Oct 2016 06:00 h UTC to Wed 05 Oct 2016 06:00 h UTC

a strongly meridional orientated general Weather pattern
is present over Europe
a highly amplified Ridge extents from France to Scandinavia
during the forecast time an upper level low
separates from that Ridge whereas its center
is forecasted between the North Sea and Southern Norway
this upper level high supports
a remarkable strong surface High with almost 1050 mb
centered over Sweden

Tropical Atlantic
Caribbean sub regions
Major Hrcne Matthew
extreme Hurricane Matthew

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Matthew una volta essere nel NE coast USA
potrebbe formarsi in un NEaster Storm
tutta la East coast USA in Allerta

Hurricane Matthew Cat.4
Major Hurricane movement North at 5 Knots
max Wind 115 Knots central Pressure 943 mb

powerful Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean Sea
distinctive eye of Matthew this afternoon
on visible satellite
observed to be 14 miles wide
by the Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunters

occhio ( Danger ! )
Hrcne Matthew
SW Haiti
Rainfall ... in ben 24 h 750 mm
equivalenti ad un Totale annuo per il SE Inghilterra

Major Hrcne Matthew
extreme Hurricane Matthew
Danger ! possible extreme flash Floods

Buoy Station 42T58
SSE of Kingston Jamaica
eye of Hrcne Matthew marked by data from NOAA Buoy
eye of Hrcne Matthew passage over Gulf Buoy 948 mb
03.10.2016

Tropical Atlantic
Caribbean sub regions
Major Hrcne Matthew
extreme Hurricane Matthew
incluso la Invest 98L





vedi Modello vs Grafico da me rielaborato
quello dove io vi ho anticipato il Landfall




===
flash Floods