January 2016: Europe cold in development Winter is approaching

MetOffice UK ha scritto:an unusual sub Tropical Storm developed in the Bahamas last week
over a very warm Gulf Stream  
this Low Pressure will come to hover in the Mid Atlantic this week
and it might just hold the key to unlocking
some more Arctic air over Europe

MetOffice UK ha scritto:a part of the sub Tropical System
is forecast to cross into Europe mid week
courtesy of a Trough disruption ... this causes a part of the Trough
to break away and leave the parent Cut off in the mid ocean

MetOffice UK ha scritto:in this case a small but vigorous baby Low will ride off
on the right entrance of the Jet Stream a good location
for deepening surface pressure and enter Europe
via the Bay of Biscay sometime on Wednesday ( 13.01.2016 )

whilst this vigorous baby Low will not impact the UK directly
it is set to lower Pressure over Europe and in its wake
will drag in Arctic Air more purposefully South
across more of the continent right to the Mediterranean
this wind will be significant and create the first proper wintry feel
for about three years with wind chill on occasions down to -7°C or lower

importantly the Trough disruption will also build Pressure in the Atlantic
to the north of the sequestered parent Low
this is often the case in Trough disruptions

the increasing the Pressure gradient in the Atlantic
and lower Pressure in Europe will push more Arctic Air
more purposefully South across the UK and into Europe
so the sub Tropical System has been key to unlocking the full Arctic blast

2210Gino57 ha scritto:fino adesso tutto procede come previsto ...
i modelli stanno andando alla perfezione
da giorni prevedono giusto ...
anzi ... già dal dicembre 2015 ( novembre 2015 )
soprattutto il modello ECMWF UK a Reading

piccole modifiche da run a run è più che normale
ma alla fine ( ~3 giorni prima - ~5 giorni prima )
il modello torna al suo punto di partenza

2210Gino57 ha scritto:

notate qualcosa ?

2210Gino57 ha scritto:Edit
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t71p90-january-2016-europe-cold-in-development-winter-is-approaching#5299


Snow