strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
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riccardo 94
Matteo90
ale90
Bruno98
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
scusa Luca se lo posto quì ...
ma se è quello che penso ve ne ho accennato
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t5p30-modelli-live-autunno-2015#455
vedi a pagina 3
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p30-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#175
sarà comunque difficile ...
la Wave2 purquanto insiste ( accennato )
per noi cioè nostre Latitudini è più un SSW
in poche parole ... aria mite atlantica ...
vedi appunto pure gli ultimi miei grafici revised postati
=> surface chart analysis
ma se è quello che penso ve ne ho accennato
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t5p30-modelli-live-autunno-2015#455
vedi a pagina 3
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p30-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#175
sarà comunque difficile ...
la Wave2 purquanto insiste ( accennato )
per noi cioè nostre Latitudini è più un SSW
in poche parole ... aria mite atlantica ...
vedi appunto pure gli ultimi miei grafici revised postati
=> surface chart analysis
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
accennato cosa? al momento sono le code dei GM che vedono possibile un disturbo al VP con isolamento di GPT in sede Groelandese, rimane un qualcosa su cui parlare ma pur sempre con attendibilità bassa, troppa bassa per poterne parlare con certezza.
con un'evoluzione del genere è auspicale un'uscita bassa del Jet dagli States quindi una possibile partenza del flusso Atlantico verso le nostre latitudini, ma ripeto è un'evoluzione da prendere con cautela
con un'evoluzione del genere è auspicale un'uscita bassa del Jet dagli States quindi una possibile partenza del flusso Atlantico verso le nostre latitudini, ma ripeto è un'evoluzione da prendere con cautela
WeatherRegime- Messaggi : 4401
Data d'iscrizione : 15.10.15
Età : 33
Località : cantù
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
Buonasera
Off Topic
scusate la mia domanda un poco curiosa
in molti Forum Meteo nel Profilo vi è un button
dove poter cliccare per lasciare il Forum volontariamente
in questo non lo noto ...
Off Topic
scusate la mia domanda un poco curiosa
in molti Forum Meteo nel Profilo vi è un button
dove poter cliccare per lasciare il Forum volontariamente
in questo non lo noto ...
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
2210Gino57 ha scritto:Buonasera
Off Topic
scusate la mia domanda un poco curiosa
in molti Forum Meteo nel Profilo vi è un button
dove poter cliccare per lasciare il Forum volontariamente
in questo non lo noto ...
OT
penso che dovrebbe il tasto disconnetti del menù in alto quello di cui parli
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
Off Topic
non quel button Alessandro ... quello lo so
oltre ad molti Forum Meteo sono stato pure Moderatore
cioè mi hanno graduato per la mia Esperienza Meteo ed Forecast
naturalmente solo la mia Sezione apposita ... beh insomma ...
no ... intendo il button per poter lasciar il Forum completamente
non quel button Alessandro ... quello lo so
oltre ad molti Forum Meteo sono stato pure Moderatore
cioè mi hanno graduato per la mia Esperienza Meteo ed Forecast
naturalmente solo la mia Sezione apposita ... beh insomma ...
no ... intendo il button per poter lasciar il Forum completamente
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
una buona Domenica 08.11.2015 con Sole ed Temp di +15°C
bella questa ... io vi annuncio in anticipo le News
e voi poi ne fate gli Articoli in HP
almeno un pizzico di nominarmi
dopotutto il mio Lavoro ha pure un Prezzo
di normale dovrei essere un Moderatore
almeno ora dato che vi è la Stanza di Gino
Ginos Long Range Forecast Threads
evoluzione Meteo e tendenza ad opera del nostro Gino
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#111
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#11
pagina 4
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p45-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#318
pagina 6
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p75-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#438
powerful Tropical Cyclone Megh to follow in footsteps of Chapala
bella questa ... io vi annuncio in anticipo le News
e voi poi ne fate gli Articoli in HP
almeno un pizzico di nominarmi
dopotutto il mio Lavoro ha pure un Prezzo
di normale dovrei essere un Moderatore
almeno ora dato che vi è la Stanza di Gino
Ginos Long Range Forecast Threads
evoluzione Meteo e tendenza ad opera del nostro Gino
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#111
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#11
pagina 4
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p45-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#318
pagina 6
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p75-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#438
powerful Tropical Cyclone Megh to follow in footsteps of Chapala
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
come vi ho già accennato nei post precedenti
Europe ... mild November 2015
strat vortex => stratosphere vortex
Europe ... mild November 2015
2210Gino57 ha scritto:strong el niño plus a westerly QBO
favours a stronger strat vortex
however it also increases the chances of a SSW
strat vortex => stratosphere vortex
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
2210Gino57 ha scritto:una buona Domenica 08.11.2015 con Sole ed Temp di +15°C
bella questa ... io vi annuncio in anticipo le News
e voi poi ne fate gli Articoli in HP
almeno un pizzico di nominarmi
dopotutto il mio Lavoro ha pure un Prezzo
di normale dovrei essere un Moderatore
almeno ora dato che vi è la Stanza di Gino
Ginos Long Range Forecast Threads
evoluzione Meteo e tendenza ad opera del nostro Gino
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#111
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#11
pagina 4
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p45-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#318
pagina 6
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p75-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#438
powerful Tropical Cyclone Megh to follow in footsteps of Chapala
emmm, no direi di no Gino, le news che pubblichiamo in home le facciamo con i dati che ci arrivano dai GM
WeatherRegime- Messaggi : 4401
Data d'iscrizione : 15.10.15
Età : 33
Località : cantù
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
buon pomeriggio
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 08 Nov 2015 06:00 h UTC to Mon 09 Nov 2015 06:00 h UTC
NE Europe
cyclonically curved Jet Streak within a N-easterly moving Trough
is Frcst to pass british isles and North Sea during the forecast period
most of the southern europe
( where thunderstorms are the most likely during this time of the year )
stays under the extensive Azores Highs Ridge
that inhibits convective activity
a tongue of warm and dry Air from NW Africa
( with 850 hpa Temperature up to 15°C -17°C )
covers iberian peninsula and france and moves eastwardly
during the forecast period providing warm and dry Weather
such a warm air mass causes a large horizontal Thermal gradient $
between cold Air over N Atlantic
and results in a strong Thermal wind ( Jet Stream )
that undulates over british isles and baltic sea
within these systems ( Troughs ) a rapidly moving
cold Fronts are forecast to be capable of producing lightning
and pose a threat for the severe wind gusts and tornadoes
ECMWF ... 10.11.2015
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 08 Nov 2015 06:00 h UTC to Mon 09 Nov 2015 06:00 h UTC
NE Europe
cyclonically curved Jet Streak within a N-easterly moving Trough
is Frcst to pass british isles and North Sea during the forecast period
most of the southern europe
( where thunderstorms are the most likely during this time of the year )
stays under the extensive Azores Highs Ridge
that inhibits convective activity
a tongue of warm and dry Air from NW Africa
( with 850 hpa Temperature up to 15°C -17°C )
covers iberian peninsula and france and moves eastwardly
during the forecast period providing warm and dry Weather
such a warm air mass causes a large horizontal Thermal gradient $
between cold Air over N Atlantic
and results in a strong Thermal wind ( Jet Stream )
that undulates over british isles and baltic sea
within these systems ( Troughs ) a rapidly moving
cold Fronts are forecast to be capable of producing lightning
and pose a threat for the severe wind gusts and tornadoes
ECMWF ... 10.11.2015
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2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
che bella cupola di H delle Azzorre
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
vi interessa ? ... pagina 6
Hovmollers Section
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p75-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#434
Hovmollers Section
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t16p75-strong-el-nino-2015-2016-and-its-impacts-in-europe#434
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
buonasera
december 2015 on average is a very zonal month the most zonal of the year
december 2015 on average is a very zonal month the most zonal of the year
Ultima modifica di 2210Gino57 il Dom Nov 08, 2015 9:06 pm - modificato 1 volta.
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
per i prossimi 3 mesi siamo messi male
zonal Wind at 200 mb NDJ ... meridional Wind at 200 mb NDJ
NDJ => November December January
zonal Wind at 200 mb NDJ ... meridional Wind at 200 mb NDJ
NDJ => November December January
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
belle ed interessanti queste cross section ...
affinchè non si sposta quella bella macchia viola over greenland
avremo per giorni settimane questa monotonia ... cioè mite ( mT )
vedi attualmente oppure modelli postati
ci credete oppure no la massa di aria mite arriva da oltre atlantico ... USA
ve ne ho accennato ... ma voi preferite aspettare i GM ... Run by Run
affinchè non si sposta quella bella macchia viola over greenland
avremo per giorni settimane questa monotonia ... cioè mite ( mT )
vedi attualmente oppure modelli postati
ci credete oppure no la massa di aria mite arriva da oltre atlantico ... USA
ve ne ho accennato ... ma voi preferite aspettare i GM ... Run by Run
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
Data d'iscrizione : 29.10.15
Età : 66
Località : CH - 6044 LU 620 m s.l.m. Sicily 96010 Buccheri SR 820 m s.l.m. near M. Lauro Radar Sicily
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
Air mass Trajectory ... backward
da dove proviene la massa di Aria
Svizzera ... Jungfraujoch ... ... Italia ... Roma
da dove proviene la massa di Aria
Svizzera ... Jungfraujoch ... ... Italia ... Roma
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
se tutto procede come deve ( Multi Models )
la macchia viola ( cioè la Wave 2 )
dovrebbe spostarsi over la scandinavia
quindi possibilità di una apertura ed via libera
per una evtl. discesa fredda da nord verso sud
ma questo verso il 20.11.2015
bisogna ora monitorare la situazione delle onde
cioè Rossby Waves ... zonal Wind ... Ridge .. Trough
la macchia viola ( cioè la Wave 2 )
dovrebbe spostarsi over la scandinavia
quindi possibilità di una apertura ed via libera
per una evtl. discesa fredda da nord verso sud
ma questo verso il 20.11.2015
bisogna ora monitorare la situazione delle onde
cioè Rossby Waves ... zonal Wind ... Ridge .. Trough
Ultima modifica di 2210Gino57 il Mer Nov 18, 2015 9:22 pm - modificato 1 volta.
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Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
già da giugno 2015 in atlantico prime tracce di raffreddamento
Atlantic is entering a cool phase that will change the Worlds Weather
attualmente da settimane nel nord atlantico
si nota una cold blob ( SSTA )
da notare con coincidenza al Gulf Stream SST SSTA AMO NAO ( AO )
ma soprattutto al attuale strong El Niño 2015 - 2016
poi vi sono pure i Jet Stream ( ovvero i PFJ ) e per ultimo i Rossby Waves
vi sono pure molti altri fattori ma questi sono i principali ...
cold Atlantic blob puzzles scientists
giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )
Atlantic is entering a cool phase that will change the Worlds Weather
attualmente da settimane nel nord atlantico
si nota una cold blob ( SSTA )
da notare con coincidenza al Gulf Stream SST SSTA AMO NAO ( AO )
ma soprattutto al attuale strong El Niño 2015 - 2016
poi vi sono pure i Jet Stream ( ovvero i PFJ ) e per ultimo i Rossby Waves
vi sono pure molti altri fattori ma questi sono i principali ...
cold Atlantic blob puzzles scientists
giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
Data d'iscrizione : 29.10.15
Età : 66
Località : CH - 6044 LU 620 m s.l.m. Sicily 96010 Buccheri SR 820 m s.l.m. near M. Lauro Radar Sicily
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
scusate se ve lo scrivo in inglese
giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )
Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region
south of greenland are near to
or below their lowest recorded levels
a giant blob of cold water has appeared in the North Atlantic
over the summer months bucking the global trend
of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around the world
Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region south of greenland
are near to or below their lowest recorded levels
leading some scientists to speculate that it may be
a sign that the vast oceans currents of the North Atlantic
are slowing down due to large volumes of glacial melt water
running into the sea
since the beginning of the year scientists
at the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA )
have recorded much lower sea surface temperatures
than usual in the region south of greenland and iceland
with some area recording the lowest eight month period on record
this contrasts with the noticeably higher than average temperatures
seen in almost every other part of the world
which has coincided with a strong El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean
the warm sea current associated with a disturbance
in normal weather patterns
a spokeswoman for the UK Met Office said
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
are well below average and they have been all summer
one suggestion is that the freshwater run off
from the melting greenland glaciers are disturbing
the ocean engine that drives the North Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation
the giant Conveyor belt of sea currents
that include the Gulf Stream
ve ne ho accennao su easameteo ( giant Conveyor belt )
the engine that drives ocean currents is powered
by the sinking of cold salty water
from the sea surface to the seabed in a part
of the North Atlantic south of iceland
but some scientists fear that it is being
disturbed by a layer of cold freshwater
which tends to remain on the sea surface
because the less dense freshwater
floats on the denser salty water
earlier this year scientists published a study suggesting
that the North Atlantic circulation
the northward flow of warm surface water
and the southward flow of deep cold water
had slowed down by between 15% and 20%
during the 20th Century
the current blob was caused partly by strong winds
over the Atlantic during the Winter 2013 - 2014
taking a lot of heat out of the ocean
but I think there are longer term changes going
on in the Atlantic that would give
a similar temperature pattern
said Leon Hermanson a senior scientist
at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter
the magnitude of the changes on time scales
of decades is larger than the effects
we expect from greenland land ice
melt or other factors slowing down
the Atlantic Conveyor belt
the measurements we have of the Conveyor belt
are only ten years long and not at the ideal latitude
to study the northern North Atlantic
but i think based on my own and other peoples research
that the Conveyor belt is currently decreasing
mainly due to climate variability
and only a little due to climate change
giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )
Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region
south of greenland are near to
or below their lowest recorded levels
a giant blob of cold water has appeared in the North Atlantic
over the summer months bucking the global trend
of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around the world
Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region south of greenland
are near to or below their lowest recorded levels
leading some scientists to speculate that it may be
a sign that the vast oceans currents of the North Atlantic
are slowing down due to large volumes of glacial melt water
running into the sea
since the beginning of the year scientists
at the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA )
have recorded much lower sea surface temperatures
than usual in the region south of greenland and iceland
with some area recording the lowest eight month period on record
this contrasts with the noticeably higher than average temperatures
seen in almost every other part of the world
which has coincided with a strong El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean
the warm sea current associated with a disturbance
in normal weather patterns
a spokeswoman for the UK Met Office said
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
are well below average and they have been all summer
one suggestion is that the freshwater run off
from the melting greenland glaciers are disturbing
the ocean engine that drives the North Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation
the giant Conveyor belt of sea currents
that include the Gulf Stream
ve ne ho accennao su easameteo ( giant Conveyor belt )
the engine that drives ocean currents is powered
by the sinking of cold salty water
from the sea surface to the seabed in a part
of the North Atlantic south of iceland
but some scientists fear that it is being
disturbed by a layer of cold freshwater
which tends to remain on the sea surface
because the less dense freshwater
floats on the denser salty water
earlier this year scientists published a study suggesting
that the North Atlantic circulation
the northward flow of warm surface water
and the southward flow of deep cold water
had slowed down by between 15% and 20%
during the 20th Century
the current blob was caused partly by strong winds
over the Atlantic during the Winter 2013 - 2014
taking a lot of heat out of the ocean
but I think there are longer term changes going
on in the Atlantic that would give
a similar temperature pattern
said Leon Hermanson a senior scientist
at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter
the magnitude of the changes on time scales
of decades is larger than the effects
we expect from greenland land ice
melt or other factors slowing down
the Atlantic Conveyor belt
the measurements we have of the Conveyor belt
are only ten years long and not at the ideal latitude
to study the northern North Atlantic
but i think based on my own and other peoples research
that the Conveyor belt is currently decreasing
mainly due to climate variability
and only a little due to climate change
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
Data d'iscrizione : 29.10.15
Età : 66
Località : CH - 6044 LU 620 m s.l.m. Sicily 96010 Buccheri SR 820 m s.l.m. near M. Lauro Radar Sicily
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
2210Gino57 ha scritto:scusate se ve lo scrivo in inglese
giant blob cold water in N Atlantic bucking trend
warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST )
Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region
south of greenland are near to
or below their lowest recorded levels
a giant blob of cold water has appeared in the North Atlantic
over the summer months bucking the global trend
of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around the world
Temperatures of the sea surface in a vast region south of greenland
are near to or below their lowest recorded levels
leading some scientists to speculate that it may be
a sign that the vast oceans currents of the North Atlantic
are slowing down due to large volumes of glacial melt water
running into the sea
since the beginning of the year scientists
at the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA )
have recorded much lower sea surface temperatures
than usual in the region south of greenland and iceland
with some area recording the lowest eight month period on record
this contrasts with the noticeably higher than average temperatures
seen in almost every other part of the world
which has coincided with a strong El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean
the warm sea current associated with a disturbance
in normal weather patterns
a spokeswoman for the UK Met Office said
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
are well below average and they have been all summer
one suggestion is that the freshwater run off
from the melting greenland glaciers are disturbing
the ocean engine that drives the North Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation
the giant Conveyor belt of sea currents
that include the Gulf Stream
ve ne ho accennao su easameteo ( giant Conveyor belt )
the engine that drives ocean currents is powered
by the sinking of cold salty water
from the sea surface to the seabed in a part
of the North Atlantic south of iceland
but some scientists fear that it is being
disturbed by a layer of cold freshwater
which tends to remain on the sea surface
because the less dense freshwater
floats on the denser salty water
earlier this year scientists published a study suggesting
that the North Atlantic circulation
the northward flow of warm surface water
and the southward flow of deep cold water
had slowed down by between 15% and 20%
during the 20th Century
the current blob was caused partly by strong winds
over the Atlantic during the Winter 2013 - 2014
taking a lot of heat out of the ocean
but I think there are longer term changes going
on in the Atlantic that would give
a similar temperature pattern
said Leon Hermanson a senior scientist
at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter
the magnitude of the changes on time scales
of decades is larger than the effects
we expect from greenland land ice
melt or other factors slowing down
the Atlantic Conveyor belt
the measurements we have of the Conveyor belt
are only ten years long and not at the ideal latitude
to study the northern North Atlantic
but i think based on my own and other peoples research
that the Conveyor belt is currently decreasing
mainly due to climate variability
and only a little due to climate change
su questo argomento ho pronto un articolo che verrà pubblicato in settimana sul sito
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
Autumn Forecast 2015
September 2015
... ... ...
===
October 2015
... ... ...
===
November 2015
strangely the final month in a seasonal forecast is usually
the month with most uncertainly and although
at this length confidence is always going to be low
there seems to be general agreement for a relatively unsettled
perhaps stormy month ahead
a peaking El Niño in late autumn is thought to help develop
a strong North Atlantic Oscillation which brings an unsettled
often stormy pattern to the UK
the patterns below from the long range models
are just classic examples
now as has often been the case this year my research
has tended to run against the models
so lets see if this is the case
although there are subtle differences there is agreement
that a more westerly flow is likely during November 2015
Summary
so we have overall agreement for a more westerly driven pattern
likely a positive NAO bringing unsettled perhaps stormy conditions UK
normally during a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation
temperatures are mild
however with the North Atlantic being unusually cold
we may see a colder theme with some early snow possible
for higher routes in the north of the UK
with such a temperature contrast likely in the North Atlantic
the jet stream may be strong for a time
producing a few very deep low pressure systems
bringing strong, gale force or even severe gale force winds
during this period
Precipitation: Average to above average
Temperatures: Average ( Potentially below at times in the north )
so overall autumn looks like starting off generally settled
and this may last through till october
then a transition to a more unsettled flow
will take place and by november
we will potentially entering a stormy period of weather
September 2015
... ... ...
===
October 2015
... ... ...
===
November 2015
strangely the final month in a seasonal forecast is usually
the month with most uncertainly and although
at this length confidence is always going to be low
there seems to be general agreement for a relatively unsettled
perhaps stormy month ahead
a peaking El Niño in late autumn is thought to help develop
a strong North Atlantic Oscillation which brings an unsettled
often stormy pattern to the UK
the patterns below from the long range models
are just classic examples
now as has often been the case this year my research
has tended to run against the models
so lets see if this is the case
although there are subtle differences there is agreement
that a more westerly flow is likely during November 2015
Summary
so we have overall agreement for a more westerly driven pattern
likely a positive NAO bringing unsettled perhaps stormy conditions UK
normally during a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation
temperatures are mild
however with the North Atlantic being unusually cold
we may see a colder theme with some early snow possible
for higher routes in the north of the UK
with such a temperature contrast likely in the North Atlantic
the jet stream may be strong for a time
producing a few very deep low pressure systems
bringing strong, gale force or even severe gale force winds
during this period
Precipitation: Average to above average
Temperatures: Average ( Potentially below at times in the north )
so overall autumn looks like starting off generally settled
and this may last through till october
then a transition to a more unsettled flow
will take place and by november
we will potentially entering a stormy period of weather
Ultima modifica di 2210Gino57 il Lun Nov 09, 2015 10:48 pm - modificato 1 volta.
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
Data d'iscrizione : 29.10.15
Età : 66
Località : CH - 6044 LU 620 m s.l.m. Sicily 96010 Buccheri SR 820 m s.l.m. near M. Lauro Radar Sicily
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
bene Alessandro
non vedo la ora di leggerlo
( perchè poi mi assento per ben 3 weeks )
penso da fine novembre 2015 in poi
questo Articolo come avrai letto è della MetOffice UK
non vedo la ora di leggerlo
( perchè poi mi assento per ben 3 weeks )
penso da fine novembre 2015 in poi
Ale90 ha scritto:su questo argomento ho pronto un articolo
che verrà pubblicato in settimana sul sito
questo Articolo come avrai letto è della MetOffice UK
Ultima modifica di 2210Gino57 il Lun Nov 09, 2015 11:25 pm - modificato 1 volta.
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
Data d'iscrizione : 29.10.15
Età : 66
Località : CH - 6044 LU 620 m s.l.m. Sicily 96010 Buccheri SR 820 m s.l.m. near M. Lauro Radar Sicily
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
Europe ... MSLP
09.11.2015 00z - 10.11.2015 12z - 25.11.2015 12z
fu berlin germany dwd ... copyright nomi
09.11.2015 00z - 10.11.2015 12z - 25.11.2015 12z
fu berlin germany dwd ... copyright nomi
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
Data d'iscrizione : 29.10.15
Età : 66
Località : CH - 6044 LU 620 m s.l.m. Sicily 96010 Buccheri SR 820 m s.l.m. near M. Lauro Radar Sicily
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
a fine novembre 2015 si chiude la stagione uragani in atlantico
vedi Thread su easy meteo
http://easymeteo.italiaforum.net/t957-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2015-is-open
Atlantic Hrcne Basin ... Bahamas
Tropical Storm Kate
===
prima che vadino persi ... alcuni miei grafici elaborati
piccolo Off Topic sui Hurricanes ( School Lexicon )
eccovi alcuni Grafici ( elaborati da me in black & white )
movimento ( rotazione ) di un Uragano ( incluso i Venti secondari )
come sapete le Acque ( Oceani ) per un Uragano
vuol dire Benzina ( Rifornimento )
formazione delle Onde alte ( High Waves => WW3 )
detto pure Roughest Seas
( avvolte possono arrivare fino ad una altezza di ben 15 metri )
Specialmente pericoloso quando un Uragano fa il famoso Landfall
Hurricane Atlantic Basin ... Sections ... Regions
vedi Thread su easy meteo
http://easymeteo.italiaforum.net/t957-atlantic-hrcne-basin-hrcne-season-2015-is-open
Atlantic Hrcne Basin ... Bahamas
Tropical Storm Kate
===
prima che vadino persi ... alcuni miei grafici elaborati
piccolo Off Topic sui Hurricanes ( School Lexicon )
eccovi alcuni Grafici ( elaborati da me in black & white )
movimento ( rotazione ) di un Uragano ( incluso i Venti secondari )
come sapete le Acque ( Oceani ) per un Uragano
vuol dire Benzina ( Rifornimento )
formazione delle Onde alte ( High Waves => WW3 )
detto pure Roughest Seas
( avvolte possono arrivare fino ad una altezza di ben 15 metri )
Specialmente pericoloso quando un Uragano fa il famoso Landfall
Hurricane Atlantic Basin ... Sections ... Regions
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
Data d'iscrizione : 29.10.15
Età : 66
Località : CH - 6044 LU 620 m s.l.m. Sicily 96010 Buccheri SR 820 m s.l.m. near M. Lauro Radar Sicily
Re: strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe
USA ... Atlantic ... Europe
attualmente siamo in una situazione con forte Jet Streak
vedi colore in rosso
attualmente siamo in una situazione con forte Jet Streak
vedi colore in rosso
2210Gino57- Messaggi : 5956
Data d'iscrizione : 29.10.15
Età : 66
Località : CH - 6044 LU 620 m s.l.m. Sicily 96010 Buccheri SR 820 m s.l.m. near M. Lauro Radar Sicily
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