January 2016: Europe cold in development Winter is approaching

NAO Index ... AO Index ( down )

il N della Scandinavia assaggia il primo vero freddo
Temperature di -35°C ( locali -40°C ) a quota 500 mb
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Svizzera ... dove abito io
leggero nevischio

January Winter 2016 with engeances is coming
Gennaio Inverno 2016 con la vendetta è in arrivo


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Svizzera ... dove abito io
da leggero nevischio a Fiocchi di Neve
Nevica alla grande ... colpo di scena
prevista era pioggia ma non neve
comunque non è neve asciutta
vi è pioggia nel mezzo ... ma ...
improvviso ( ehm ... imprevisto )
la previsione modelli era per mid january 2016
Inverno 2016 ( Gennaio ) e la sua vendetta ( engeances )

Stratosphere ... Troposphere
GFS 0.5° Forecast



black: 500 hPa height every 100 meters
shaded: Potential Temperature on the 2 PVU Surface
white: 10 hPa height every 500 meters

per il 17.01.2016 in Atlantico
sarà uno di quei muri ( blocco ) da Record

Greenland High block => 1060 mb

già da adesso la si introvede nel NE coast US la H
deve ora solo espandersi ( Ridge ) e spedire
verso N il Low dal Nome Britta ( 955 mb )
P.S.: in questo 2016 i Lows hanno Nomi femminili
mentre le Highs hanno i Nomi maschili
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Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 08 Jan 2016 06:00 h UTC to Sat 09 Jan 2016 06:00 h UTC

a flat Ridge framed by numerous Troughs
covers most parts of central Europe

SW UK ... Scandinavia at level 500 mb Temperature drops to -30 °C
vertical Temperature gradient

zonal mean mean Wind
an impressive negative u anomaly from ECM 12z stretching right up to 30 mb

some possible signs that the blocking patterns through
next week may take on an Omega Type pattern





January 2016: Europe ... cold in development ... Winter is approaching
Gennaio 2016: Europa ... freddo in fase di sviluppo ... Inverno si avvicina

buonasera

https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t71p15-january-2016-europe-cold-in-development-winter-is-approaching#4920

Lappland ( Finnland ) ... -40°C


che bel colore

se ti interessa gino ti riporto un articolo di mtg suòòe temperature in scandinavia

"Stanno precipitando proprio in queste ore le temperature nel nord scandinavo, finnico e russo. Le località più fredde sono scese sotto i -40°C.

In Norvegia, Cuovddatmohkki ha raggiunto -42°C e Karasjok -40,3°C.

In Svezia, Naimakka -41,5°C, Karesaundo e Nattavaara -40,5°C, Nikkaluokta e Nedre Soppero -40°C. Temperature in calo in queste ore, vedremo domattina le minime della notte.

In Russia, Verkhove Lotta -40°C. Vicinissima ai -40°C anche la Finlandia con i -38,9°C di Muonio.

Si tratta di zone che durante le più terribili ondate di gelo possono scendere anche sotto i 50 gradi sotto zero, ma il raggiungimento della soglia dei -40°C è significativa."

ti ringrazio Riccardo

ma sapete bene che sono ben informato a questo
riguardo a weather link ( bookmarks ) ne possiedo parecchi

Problema NAO Index ... AO Index
USA ... Atlantic ... Europe



quindi in poche parole questa imminente
di metà gennaio 2016 è la configurazione ideale
Greenland High block ... Omega block pattern

spero avete visto i modelli grafici diagrammi ed letto i post
dalla pagina 1 fino a pagina 3

for Europe ... mid January 2016
GFS12z is a very wintry run

for Europe ... mid January 2016
Winter 2016 with vengeances

Blocking chart at Arctic ... Greenland for the month of January 2016
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07.01.2016 ... 20:15:30 h MEZ

ECM Ens +360 h ( 21.01.2016 12z )
Holy Trinity of Winter Troughs
in East US Europe and East Asia

https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t71p15-january-2016-europe-cold-in-development-winter-is-approaching#4906
https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t71p15-january-2016-europe-cold-in-development-winter-is-approaching#4912

https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t71p15-january-2016-europe-cold-in-development-winter-is-approaching#4905

Scandinavia ... Lappland
bellissimo il cold drop

da notare

europe ... 11.01.2016
europe ... 15.01.2016



NAO Index ... AO Index

questa data vi ricorda qualcosa ?
1962 ... 1963 ... 1964

07.01.2016 ... Atlantic Hrcne Basin ... ???
Tropics wake up in January ? It can happen
risveglio a Gennaio nei Tropici ... questo può accadere ?



Disturbance1 30% ... chance of Cyclone formation in 5 days
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Arctic Oscillation crashing El Niño fueled Sud TropJet
and now anomalously strong Greenland block developing



Kara Sea and SSW stands for Sudden Stratospheric Warming
Kara Sea High => ve ne ho accennato



Greenland block 1050 mb

January 2016 500 mb anomalies for the 7th warm ENSO Kara High years
3 with SSW and 4 without

Greenland High block

https://meteo4you.forumattivo.it/t71p30-january-2016-europe-cold-in-development-winter-is-approaching#5023



07.01.2016 ... Atlantic Hrcne Basin ... ???
Tropics wake up in January ? It can happen
risveglio a Gennaio nei Tropici ... questo può accadere ?

Attenzione !

08.01.2016
Atlantic Basin

2210Gino57 ha scritto:causa upcoming extra Tropical disturbance1
has major implications for EU and UK weather development
use op runs with caution in the 144 h - 168 h onwards

quindi se è possibile per chi li possiede
usate guardare il modello ( run ) operativa
op run => operational run

buongiorno

riassumize ... synopsis

after an exceptionally mild and wet start to the winter
a change in pattern looks set to take place through
the coming days with much colder weather in prospect

december 2016 was dominated by a moist South Westerly Air Flow
of Tropical origin

with an active Jet Stream bringing frequent spells
of wet and windy weather through the month
=
devastating floods hit parts of Northern and Western Britain
with over three times the average monthly rainfall
falling in Wales and Northern England
a new 24 hour rainfall record was also set
with a staggering 341 mm falling at Honister Pass in Cumbria
=
with a central england Temperature of +9.7°C
it was also the mildest december 2015 in over 350 years of records
smashing the previous record of +8.1°C set in 1934 and 1974
by a considerable margin
daytime Temperatures reached +17°C on occasion
while overnight frosts were almost completely absent

the unseasonable warmth was not confined only to the UK
with much of europe experiencing above average Temperatures
through december 2015
however the New Year brought a dramatic change
across Eastern europe with the past week seeing
some heavy snow and exceptionally low Temperatures
across Scandinavia Russia Poland and the Baltic States
with overnight Temperatures reaching -30°C in places
and while conditions arent likely to become
as extreme in the UK it is set to turn noticeably colder
in the coming week with many areas likely
to see their first notable wintry spell of the season

into next week Low Pressure will become more established
to the East of the UK with a build of High Pressure
taking place across the mid Atlantic and Greenland
North to NorthWesterly winds are therefore likely
to become more dominant drawing
cold Air down from the Arctic
some widespread overnight frosts are possible
and showers could become wintry more
widely with the risk of some snowfall to lower levels

with the onset of the wintry weather
still a few days away
there of course remains
some uncertainty in the detail

ECMWF


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Atlantic Basin


da notare le frecce rosse

buonasera

strong winter North Atlantic block episode will develop next week
long-awaited return of North Atlantic blocking
atteso ritorno del blocco del Nord Atlantico

ECMWF



strongest winter North Atlantic blocking episode in at least 3 years
will develop over the next week
with very cold weather downstream over Europe

North Atlantic blocking
Greenland High

sarebbe una Omega block in pieno Atlantico
Omega block over Atlantic

( vedi modelli postati )  ... ( accennato )
> Trinity Winter Troughs <
USA > Trough ... Atlantic ( Greenland High ) > Ridge ... Europe > Trough

Positive PNA ... Negative phase of NAO ... Negative phase of AO
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09.01.2016 ... 00:30:15 h MEZ


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09.01.2016 ... 01:15:30 h MEZ

buon pomeriggio

ed eccola ...
ecco la configurazione barica imminente per il 14.01.2016

Koude Lucht ... cold Air on the way



ma già attualmente lo si nota bene dai modelli surface chart
nel frattempo nel NH inizia a formarsi Alta Pressione ... cioè
High Pressure over NH

quindi come previsto giorni fa ( mid december 2016 ) in poi
Greenland High ... Atlantic blocking ... Omega block

è possibile chiudere questo Thread ormai fuori data ?
strong El Niño 2015 - 2016 and its impacts in Europe

Grazie !

ma già attualmente lo si nota bene dai modelli surface chart
nel frattempo nel NH inizia a formarsi Alta Pressione ... cioè
High Pressure over NH